Posts Tagged ‘edward lucas’

23
January 2014

Political carve-ups

European Voice

The British Conservatives are managing to sideline themselves and in the process could become embroiled in some political nobbling.

It is easy to mock British Conservatives for their phobias. But their friendships are odd too. In the Council of Europe they are in the oddball European Democrats Group (EDG), along with Vladimir Putin’s United Russia party, the Ukrainian Party of Regions (the party of the Viktor Yanukovych regime), and Turkey’s AK Party. The British Tories cannot link up with their natural and historic allies in the mainstream centre-right parties, because these are Europhiles and therefore unspeakable.

This weakens Britain’s influence in Europe. It also increases Russia’s clout. The Council of Europe’s Parliamentary Assembly (PACE) may sound like a useless talking-shop, but it elects the body’s president and secretary-general. These positions, both up for election this year, set the tone for the Council’s approach on human rights. As the skies darken, this is ever-more important.

In 2008, Russia nearly succeeded in getting Mikhail Margelov elected as the PACE president. An amiable and eloquent bruiser, he has spearheaded the Kremlin’s counter-attack against its Western critics. He nearly won, because it was the EDG’s turn to have the top job (it rotates between the various groupings) and United Russia had persuaded the Tories to support their candidate.

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04
October 2013

The Kremlin starts punching

European Voice

Ways to respond to Russia’s efforts to prevent agreements between the EU and its eastern neighbours. Making friends is one thing. Influencing them is another. Russia has no desire to make friends out of its former empire. It settles for bullying them instead.

In startling form in recent weeks, the Kremlin has taken off the gloves in its dealings with its neighbours. It started trade wars with Moldova, Ukraine and Lithuania, and terrified Armenia into giving up, for now, its plans to do a deal with the European Union at the Vilnius summit in November.

A big Russian-Belarusian military exercise, Zapad-13, supposedly rehearsed counter-terrorism operations, but with warplanes and missiles – to intimidate the Baltic states and Poland. A Finnish lawyer, Kari Silvennoinen, who has written books denouncing Stalinist aggression, was detained at Moscow airport and deported.

The response so far has been modest. The EU is considering opening its market to Moldovan wine. Estonia’s President Toomas Hendrick Ilves hurried to Chisinau this week to lend support. The EU has protested about the treatment of Lithuania, which currently holds the presidency of the Council of Ministers, and of Ukraine. Ukraine is trying to buy gas from Slovakia, reversing the normal flow of the east-west pipeline, to get round the impending squeeze from Russia. But political considerations in Bratislava are slowing this down.

On the military front, NATO’s Steadfast Jazz exercise in early November is much smaller than Russia’s effort. And NATO is bending over backwards to insist that this drill, the first such exercise to be held in the new member states, is all about interoperability and certification, and absolutely nothing to do with showing the means and will to deter any Russian mischief on the alliance’s north-east flank.

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13
June 2013

Fright follows flight

Fright follows flight

A growing number of Russians want to emigrate; but even those who leave have cause for fear
Sergei Guriev admits that his wife was right. Two years ago she left for Paris, saying that it was not safe to live under the regime of President Vladimir Putin. Now the leading Russian economist is joining her. The trigger was a request from the authorities to seize his emails, apparently in preparation for a case against him. His crime is unclear: it may have been giving an expert opinion about the legal status of Yukos, once Russia’s largest oil company, which was spectacularly dismembered in a Kremlin-sponsored raid ten years ago.

Guriev’s departure is part of a trend. Garry Kasparov, the chess champion and opposition leader, says it is too risky to return to Russia. Friends of Alexei Navalny, another opposition leader, fear he has left it too late: he faces jail on trumped-up fraud charges.

The mixture of lawlessness and repression is chilling. Overall, nearly a quarter of Russians want to emigrate. The figure is striking: 22%, up from 13% in 2009. The survey is by the Levada centre, Russia’s best-known opinion pollster, which the authorities are harassing because it receives some money from abroad and is therefore a “foreign agent”.

The unhappiest are the middle classes, who should be the biggest beneficiaries of the boom of the past 13 years: 45% of students and 38% of entrepreneurs want to leave, with the highest figures in Moscow and other big cities. So far emigration is a ripple, not a wave. About three-quarters of the discontented say they will stay put. Only 1% of those surveyed are actually taking practical steps to go.

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23
May 2013

Russian Spy Games: Ryan Fogle and the New Cold War

Foreign Affairs

The case of Ryan Fogle, a 29-year-old third secretary in the political department of the U.S. embassy in Moscow who was arrested last week by Russian authorities, sparked a media furor worthy of the heights of the Cold War. The Russian government accused him of being a CIA officer, suggesting that he had been sent to the North Caucasus to meet with Russian security officials and to follow up on leads about the Tsarnaev brothers, the two ethnic Chechens implicated in the recent Boston bombing. Fogle left Moscow speedily. But in case anyone thought the episode was a one-off, news has also leaked of another: the expulsion on May 5 of Thomas Firestone, a prominent American lawyer in Moscow who used to work at the Department of Justice and is a caustic and well-informed observer of official corruption in Russia. The Russian security service, the FSB (Federalnaya Sluzhba Bezopasnosti), had apparently tried, and failed, to recruit him.

Although it would be a scandal if the United States were caught spying on Canada or the United Kingdom, no one should be surprised that the United States spies on Russia — or vice versa. Russia is not a member of the Five Eyes, the intelligence-sharing alliance between the United States, the United Kingdom, Canada, Australia, and New Zealand, which is the closest thing the intelligence community has to a trusting family. Russia is not even a member of NATO — and NATO allies, such as Greece and Turkey, spy on each other all the time.

For all the talk of resets, moreover, Russia and the United States remain adversaries. Russia is no longer the United States’ top priority, but it does rehearse military strikes on NATO targets, its media is full of anti-Western propaganda, and the country’s security services have a mixed record when it comes to dealing with violent Islamist extremists. Sometimes it represses them harshly; sometimes it uses them to serve Russian interests. The Russians captured Ayman al-Zawahiri, the current leader of al Qaeda, in 1996, but let him go for reasons that remain unclear.

So it is only natural that CIA officers at the U.S. embassy in Moscow, working under diplomatic cover, seek out and cultivate potential sources. And in fact, the CIA’s recent track record of recruiting Russians is excellent. It flipped Alexander Poteyev, the number two in the Russian Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR) department dealing with the United States. Poteyev, in turn, betrayed the service’s crown jewels: its ten undercover sleeper agents in North America. That led to the arrest of Anna Chapman, a Russian national who had partied her way through London and New York, probably to build up a cover story for use later, and her colleagues. Poteyev, who was on the verge of being caught, was smuggled out of Russia in a textbook CIA exfiltration operation. Shock waves from that continue to provide other victories. German authorities arrested Andreas and Heidrun Anschlag, Russians who had lived in Germany for more than two decades under false identities and had apparently passed information on German, EU, and NATO security policies to the SVR.

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08
May 2013

Russia’s child-shields

European Voice

To prevent corrupt Russian officials being barred from Europe, Russia is now using the threat of an adoption ban against European states.

I am no great fan of the international adoption business – it can easily turn into a corrupt, unregulated and even sinister market in children. It is much better to deal with the reasons that the children end up in institutions in the first place and to encourage people to provide homes for them in their own country.

Now Russia is threatening to ban international adoptions. Not as part of a big push to improve child welfare, but to punish foreign countries for their temerity in imposing visa sanctions and asset freezes on the people – mainly officials – involved in the death of the auditor Sergei Magnitsky, and the $230 million (€176m) fraud that he uncovered.

It is worth bearing in mind the nature of the fraud. My email inbox is peppered with complaints from foreigners who have fallen foul of officialdom or local competitors in Russia. My answer is always the same: tough. If you go mud-wrestling, in a seemingly lucrative contest where the referee is known to be corruptible, and where your adversaries are rich and unscrupulous, you will certainly get dirty and may well lose.

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13
December 2012

Avenging a whistleblower

European Voice

The passage of the ‘Magnitsky list’ puts the US back on the moral high ground. What does ‘eastern Europe’ think about the new American administration? That was the question that CEPA, a Washington, DC think-tank where I am a non-resident fellow, set me last month.

My answer was “not much”. For a start, I argued that the idea of a homogenous ‘east European’ region of ardent Atlanticists is out of date. Only Poland and Estonia pay their real dues to NATO (spending 2% of gross domestic product on defence). They and a few other countries still have specific expectations of US military involvement in Europe, exemplified by NATO’s contingency planning and next year’s Steadfast Jazz exercise. This will defend a fictitious chunk of NATO from a fictitious adversary. It just happens to take place mostly in Poland and the Baltic states. But most countries when they think about the US do so as Europeans, not as ‘ex-communist countries’. Just like most Europeans, they want the US to be strong and friendly.

But expectations are modest. After 1989, the US was the single most important country for newly free Europe. Not any more. For those in search of an economic and political model, the Nordic countries offer the best example of dynamic capitalism and high-quality public services. The US is a friend, but for the most part a far-away and distracted one.

I pooh-poohed the US’s role a bit prematurely. It is true that the administration is not greatly focused on Europe. But the US is more than the administration. Congress has put the US back on the moral high ground, by passing a law containing the ‘Magnitsky list’.

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13
July 2012

Words of wisdom for a captive audience?

European Voice

Barack Obama’s Captive Nations Week speech will likely favour blandness over stirring rhetoric.
As regular readers of this column may know, since 1959 the United States has marked the third week in July as Captive Nations Week. It arrived on the political calendar thanks to a joint resolution of Congress and it has remained there ever since. It decries the enslavement by communist imperialism of “Poland, Hungary, Lithuania, Ukraine, Czechoslovakia, Latvia, Estonia, White Ruthenia, Rumania, East Germany, Bulgaria, mainland China, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, North Korea, Albania, Idel-Ural, Tibet, Cossackia, Turkestan, North Viet-Nam, and others”.

It was a rum list even then: it ignored Yugoslavia (captive to communism but not the Soviet empire), and nations such as the Circassians whose history gives them every cause to complain. It includes some obscure candidates (Cossackia) but ignores Russia itself, which has a good claim to be the first inmate of the communist prison and its greatest victim. Eleven of the nations mentioned, or the countries that they now form, are safely in NATO or the EU or both.

Yet the job is only half-done. Most of the countries that were unfree before 1989 are unfree now. So the main message should still be clear. That the US, “the citadel of human freedom” (in the words of the original law), cares about their plight is a powerful, encouraging message for, say, Tibetans – a truly captive nation in the old sense of the phrase – and for those in the slave labour camps of communist China, or in the still more barbarous conditions of North Korea.

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22
June 2012

BRITISH JOURNALIST ISSUES CHILLING WARNING ON RUSSIA

St Petersburg Times

The shapely figure of Anna Chapman isn’t at first glance the likely subject of scrutiny by one of the world’s weightier analysts of international affairs.

But in a new book, Edward Lucas has looked beyond Chapman’s image as a cartoon Bond girl for the reality TV age to identify a yet more grubby and sinister phenomenon.

In “Deception,” Chapman and the nine other Russian spies working undercover in the United States who were sensationally flushed out in June 2010 are shown to be emblematic of nothing less than a deepening existential threat to the West and its entire way of life. At first glance, the claim seems overblown.

But with the explosive thoroughness and persuasiveness he brought to “The New Cold War” (2008), a previous book-length warning about the intents and discontents of Russia’s rulers, Lucas convincingly builds a case.

The one-word, above-the-fold title of the book, and its racy tagline (“Spies, lies and how Russia dupes the West”), together with the film poster look of its cover, is unnecessarily Hitchcockian. The stark polemic within needs no Hollywood touches. While an unrecognizable photo of Chapman lurks in the corner, the larger image is of the unmistakably demonic eye of Vladimir Putin.

This again belies the content within. Far from delivering an easy pop-psychological screed against Russia’s accidental president and his kleptocracy, “Deception” reveals the cogs and wheels of a deeper and more troubling malady: That of how Russia’s ruling class hungers for, needs and maintains the machinery of espionage for its very survival.

To supply context, Lucas turns to the convoluted tragedy of Sergei Magnitsky. The sorry story of the demise in custody in 2009 of a lawyer who had attempted to show how Russian government officials were colluding in corporate wrongdoing, explained here with refreshing clarity, ostensibly has little to do with the picture of post-Cold War spy games that the book purports to deliver. But Lucas chooses the planks of his platform carefully. As his argument develops, it becomes clearer why Magnitsky matters.

Magnitsky matters, Lucas argues, because the normal functions in a nation state vis-a-vis its citizenry of such entities as the government, business and the judiciary have in Russia been perverted into instruments of thievery, chicanery and, in Magnitsky’s case, all that plus death.

In this picture, the organs of the Russian state, including its intelligence apparatus, operate solely as an extra-judicial racket aimed at the enrichment of its members — but not only for the domestic monetary enrichment that those familiar with Russian corruption would expect from rigged auctions, dubious expropriations and everyday bribery. Rather, Lucas argues that Russia’s intelligence services are in the business of enriching themselves by stealing foreign secrets in a deep-rooted and chauvinistic attack. The argument is at times densely articulated, but ultimately plausible.

In later parts of the book, Lucas delineates the history of spying between Russia and the West before, during and after its Soviet-era heyday to show how intractable the grudge match is. In this analysis, the West nearly always comes off worse. Indeed, Lucas aims his sharpest barbs at the West’s inability, through naivety, incompetence and wishful thinking, to effectively counter the threat that the Russian state has posed and poses. Such complacency, he argues, created the possibility of Chapman and her ilk. With well-paced outrage, Lucas never fails to question this complacency.

The frontline of the struggle takes place in the Baltic nations, which Lucas calls the “cockpit of Europe.” After an occasionally confusing summary of the 20th-century history of East-West spying in the Baltics, intrinsically tied to the shifting priorities of that complex era, we arrive at the key story of the Estonian traitor Herman Simm. With it, Lucas is able to demonstrate why the problem of Russia’s ability to deceive the West is an emergency.

Simm was a top-ranking policeman during the Soviet occupation who, not exceptionally, was recruited in 1985 as a low-level spy by the Soviet KGB. After Estonia’s independence, Simm, still being managed by handlers in the KGB’s successor agency in Russia, rose spotlessly through the ranks of Estonia’s defense establishment to land a plum role at NATO headquarters in Brussels after Estonia joined the Western military alliance in 2004.

Lucas shows that inadequate checks and a trusting, starry-eyed “post-collapse” attitude on the part of officials from NATO — as well as nonchalant flat-out lies on the part of the man himself — failed to flag Simm’s KGB link. With Russia’s special antipathy to NATO reaching obsessive, hysterical proportions in the legions of Putin’s siloviki in the 2000s, the placement in its heart of an asset such as Simm, and possibly not only Simm, showed how lax the West had — or has — become. For pay, Simm was passing secrets to Moscow until the CIA sniffed a mole and assisted in his arrest. The Estonian authorities subsequently tried Simm, and, in an exclusive, Lucas was able to interview the now-incarcerated spy for this book.

Deep-cover operatives, Simm, Chapman, other spies, new types hiding in plain sight (obviously so if they are exposed, not at all if they are not), and lots of them, hint at a deep imbalance between the capability of contemporary Russia to at least undermine the West with the deployment of such agents, as opposed to the other way around, Lucas writes.

It is a thought likely to disturb anybody from the West who ever fell in love with a Russian, like the hapless Alex Chapman.

The whirlwind, short-lived marriage of the young Englishman to the daughter of a top KGB general enabled Anna to easily obtain British citizenship in her early 20s (since revoked), and move to the U.S., while working in semi-sensitive roles in banks and hedge funds. At the time she was also involved in shadowy entities in Zimbabwe and Ireland, all along as part of a seeming international criminal scam that not only encompassed the trading of secrets but also the looting of money. These are new strands to the story that Lucas diligently unpicks. Anna, the failed spy, has since become a celebrity in Russia.

Like a legendary litigator in a courtroom drama, the author skillfully sketches context, identifies the accused, mines admissible evidence, brings alive forgotten victims, espouses expert historical critique and eventually delivers a withering verdict that it would be remiss of anybody living through this entangled story to ignore. That means all of us. An important and urgent book.

Q & A

For years the name of British journalist Edward Lucas was unfamiliar to even the most ardent Russia-watchers in the West. That is because the writer, who has made a two-decade career reporting on Central Europe and the countries of the former Soviet Union, works for The Economist, a conservative U.K. weekly newspaper that makes a point of removing its reporters’ names from its articles to present a seamless, egoless account of world affairs.

But in 2008, Lucas, now international editor of The Economist, published under his own name “The New Cold War,” a book that examined in polemical form Vladimir Putin’s foreign policy. The book — given currency by Russia’s war with Georgia — and its alarmist tone was considered overstated by some, especially in the light of the election that year of the apparent moderate reformer Dmitry Medvedev to the Russian presidency. However, we all know how that turned out and “The New Cold War” has become a classic of cool analysis and, indeed, prescience. In the meantime, Lucas’s stock rose steadily.

The publication in the U.K. earlier this year of “Deception,” Lucas’s second book, was therefore hotly anticipated. A detailed analysis of Russia-West espionage given fresh urgency by the exposure of Anna Chapman and her cohorts in 2010, the book was published in the U.S. this week. Lucas spoke to The St. Petersburg Times about his new book and some of the topics it raises.

Q: “Deception” is broadly a warning to the West not to be complacent about Russia’s will and ability to spy on it. If they read it, how do you think ordinary Russian readers would view the thrust of your argument?

A: Spies traditionally have a good image inside Russia, as I point out — from Stirlitz to Anna Chapman. But I think that this is vulnerable now for several reasons. One is that Russians are increasingly receptive to the idea that the regime is not making the country strong, but is in fact looting it. Another is that the regime’s anti-Westernism is resonating less. The reputation of the “organs” themselves is bad. The FSB [Russia’s domestic intelligence service] in particular plays a despicable role inside Russia and nepotism and corruption are rife inside the SVR [Russia’s foreign intelligence service].

So I think my argument, that the Russian regime is bad for Russia and for the West, and that espionage is an underestimated threat, may gain some agreement — perhaps grudging in some quarters — even inside Russia.

Q: How do you think those in power in Russia, i.e. in the Kremlin and in Russia’s various intelligence outfits, view your book and its central thesis?

A: I don’t know. I praise Soviet intelligence triumphs in the book and highlight Western blunders, so from an academic and historical point of view I think they would find the book fair. They won’t like being called a “pirate state” but that’s their problem. If you steal billions of dollars from your own people and jail or kill those who get in your way, people will notice, even in the West.

Q: In the book you describe in detail the means and motives of the Russian power structure to spy on an unsuspecting, even vulnerable “enemy,” the West, while at the same time noting a certain degradation in the bureaucratic and technical adroitness of its contemporary intelligence services. Which trend, in your view, has the upper hand?

A: For now I think that the vulnerabilities in the West mean that even in their current, degraded state, Russian intelligence services find penetration and other operations quite easy.

Q: You have recently been targeted by “tchaykovsky,” a mystery blogger posting in English and French, as a “pathological Russophobe.” You have made it clear that you are happy to appear alongside figures such as Russian writer Masha Gessen, the Guardian’s Moscow reporter Miriam Elder and the late investigative journalist Anna Politkovskaya, that this person is tagging as Russophobic. What do you think of the charge?

A: I am not Russophobic in the least. I speak and read Russian with great pleasure. I love Russian literature and have many Russian friends. Like them I detest the way that the regime has behaved both at home and abroad. I am honored to be placed alongside Anna Politkovskaya, even by an Internet troll.

Q: What are your hopes for your new book? What reaction has it elicited so far?

A: I have had excellent reviews in The Sunday Times, The Daily Telegraph and other media, with more coming, I hope — the American edition is launched this week. “The New Cold War” was translated into 20 languages, so I am hoping to match or beat that with this book. займ на карту срочно без отказа займ на карту без отказов круглосуточно https://zp-pdl.com/how-to-get-fast-payday-loan-online.php https://zp-pdl.com/emergency-payday-loans.php срочный займ

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29
May 2012

Deception: Spies, Lies and How Russia Dupes the West by Edward Lucas: review

Daily Telegraph

The risks involved in probing the seamy underside of Russian life are shown by the fate of the lawyer Sergei Magnitsky. Flung into jail for 11 months, he was eventually forced into a straitjacket and beaten to death on the floor of his cell.

His crime? Magnitsky was representing Hermitage Capital Management, a British-based fund manager, in a long-standing dispute with the Russian authorities over trumped-up charges of tax evasion. In the process, he had discovered how powerful Russians had stolen $230 million from their own government by fraudulently securing the biggest tax rebate in the country’s history.

His ordeal says much about the harsh realities of power in today’s Russia, according to Edward Lucas, a senior journalist at The Economist. In his book Deception, he sets out to show how a venal and amoral state is cynically exploiting the openness of Western free societies to spread tentacles of influence and corruption.

Espionage is the chosen tool of the hard men in the Kremlin and Russian spies are doing their utmost to penetrate our institutions, distort our decision-making and make off with our secrets. Thus Anna Chapman, the agent who resembled a Playboy playmate, lived undercover for years in Britain and the US before being unmasked. Lucas wants to alert us to the scale of the peril: he thinks we do not grasp how ambitious this espionage campaign has become, nor the inherent vulnerability of free societies.
He goes so far as to argue that the West risks becoming as rotten as Russia if the Kremlin’s agents are allowed to continue their work. Instead of Russia slowly normalising and becoming more like us, Lucas thinks we could end up becoming more like them.

Thus he approvingly quotes an observer who writes: “Those who keep calling for an engagement that will eventually transform Russia cannot see that it is the West, not Russia, that is being transformed.” Lucas adds: “I hope this book can help the West to avoid that fate.”

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