Posts Tagged ‘ECFR’

17
January 2013

Do EU sanctions work?

Deutsche Welle

The European Union has increased its use of sanctions against “outlaw countries” in the last few years. But one analyst argues that it has failed to police them – as a result, the efficacy of sanctions remains unclear.

For an international power often dismissed as too soft, the European Union is becoming increasingly fond of using sanctions to coerce other countries to its will. But a new paper by Konstanty Gebert, of the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR), accuses the EU of a “wilful blindness” in the way that sanctions are imposed, which has led to inconsistent successes and protracted deadlocks.

As of June 2012, the EU had sanctions in place against 26 countries around the world. And there has been a sharp increase in the last three years – from 22 decisions in 2010 to 69 a year later. Most of these have been focused on “outlaw” countries like Syria and Iran, but the EU has also shown that it is more willing to spread these diplomatic and economic weapons around – imposing them on 16 different nations in 2002, but to 28 in 2011.

The term “sanctions” can of course refer to a range of measures, some political, others economic. Some aimed at governments, others at individuals within those governments, and others still at private individuals. Often it comes down to freezing financial assets, or blocking trade in certain industries.
And the aim of sanctions can be equally wide-ranging – they can either be punishment for severe human rights violations or democratic backsliding, or deterrents to prevent countries from carrying out actions that could threaten European security.

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05
March 2012

ECFR: The end of the Putin consensus

ECFR

Putin’s return: why Europe should prepare for a weaker Putin. On Sunday 4th March Russians will chose their next president. Although Vladimir Putin is certain to win, it will be a hollow victory and his next presidency will be weaker than before.

After the ‘phantom presidency’ of Dmitry Medvedev, Vladimir Putin will find himself president of a changed Russia. Central authority is weaker, the economy is faltering and the restless middle classes are confident enough to protest against the government.

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01
December 2011

ECFR Black Coffee Morning – ‘Dealing with a post-BRIC Russia’

European Council on Foreign Relations

With Nicu Popescu, Senior Policy Fellow, ECFR, William Browder, CEO, Hermitage Capital Management and chaired by Edward Lucas, International Editor, The Economist

Wednesday 7th December, 8.30-9.30 am (registration from 8.15 am)
Venue: ECFR office, 3rd Floor Conference Room, 35 Old Queen Street, London SW1H 9JA

Dear Colleague,

The European Council on Foreign Relations is delighted to invite you to an invitation-only discussion entitled ‘Dealing with a Post-BRIC Russia’ with Nicu Popescu, senior policy fellow at ECFR, William Browder, CEO, Hermitage Capital Management and chaired by Edward Lucas, international editor, The Economist. The meeting will take place on Wednesday 7th December between 8:30 and 9:30 am at ECFR’s office in Westminster.

Vladimir Putin will return to the Presidency but to a different Russia. The global economic crisis has shattered Russia’s dream of being a BRIC that is on a par with China, India and Brazil. Russia no longer has the optimism of a rising power. Instead it has the pessimism of the West and few in Moscow have illusions about resurgence and many fear stagnation and “Brezhnevization”. In short, Russia is now post-BRIC. This has caused a foreign policy re-think in Moscow. Russia has streamlined its approach in the post-Soviet space, is increasingly nervous of China and has “reset” relations with the US. Yet paradoxically, the European Union now treats Russia more like a BRIC than it did before 2008 – having abandoned hopes to see Russia as a “big Poland” that can be slowly democratised through conditionality, it is reconciled to treating its biggest neighbour like “a small China” with which you do business and little else. How can a weakened EU react to Putin’s return to a post-BRIC Russia?

Nicu Popescu is a senior policy fellow and head of ECFR’s programme on Russia and Wider Europe. In 2010-2011 Nicu served as advisor on foreign policy and European integration to the Prime-Minister of Moldova where he dealt with a wide range of issues related to EU-Moldova relations. He has recently published a book entitled EU foreign policy and the post-Soviet conflicts: Stealth Intervention.

William Browder is the Founder and CEO of Hermitage Capital Management, the largest foreign investor in Russia until November 2005, when he was suddenly denied entry to the country and declared “a threat to national security”. Since the death of Sergei Magnitsky, Mr Browder’s lawyer, he has been leading a worldwide campaign to expose the corruption, rule of law and human rights abuses committed by Russian government officials. Through his advocacy campaign, a law was introduced in the United States Congress entitled the “Sergei Magnitsky Rule of Law Accountability Act of 2011” that would impose visa entry bans and asset freezes on Russian officials who commit human rights abuses as well as on those who cover up corruption.

Edward Lucas is the international editor of The Economist and has been a specialist in the countries of central and eastern Europe for more than 25 years with postings including Berlin, Moscow, Prague and Vienna. In the early 1990s he was the major shareholder of The Baltic Independent, an English-language weekly in the Baltic states. He is the author of The New Cold War: Putin’s Russia and the Threat to the West (2008) and of a forthcoming book on east-west espionage.

We very much hope to welcome you to this event. Places are limited, and will be allocated on a first come first served basis. Coffee and tea will be served from 8.15 am. Please confirm your participation as soon as possible by email to london@ecfr.eu.  For more information about the work of the European Council on Foreign Relations please visit www.ecfr.eu.

Mark Leonard
Director
European Council on Foreign Relations
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30
November 2011

ECFR Report: Dealing with a post-BRIC Russia

European Council on Foreign Relations

The European Council on Foreign Relations has released its latest report, ‘Dealing with a post-BRIC Russia’ by ECFR Policy Fellows Ben Judah, Jana Kobzova and Nicu Popescu.

The overall outcome of parliamentary elections on December 4th – with only tame parties standing in opposition to Putin – is not in doubt, but the specific results may signal that the Putin system is losing its legitimacy, just as he readies himself to retake the presidency (possibly until 2024). But Putin would not be returning to the same Russia as when he last held the presidency: buffeted by economic turbulence and fearful of stagnation, Russia is now post-BRIC. It no longer believes it shares the same power-trajectory as Brazil, India and China; instead, it thinks it is in relative decline with the West.

‘Dealing with a post-BRIC Russia’ looks at the domestic and foreign policy constraints on a post-BRIC Russia that will shape Putin’s next presidency. It analyses how Europe should rethink its relationship with Moscow. The authors argue that:

The economic crisis has exposed a governance crisis inside Russia: even Putin now admits that as much as 80% of Kremlin orders have been ignored in the regions. Instead of modernising, Russia in 2010 was as corrupt as Papua New Guinea, had the property rights of Kenya and was as competitive as Sri Lanka.

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31
December 2010

Russia defies EU diplomacy on Khodorkovsky sentence

EU Observer

Experts have warned that polite diplomacy alone will have zero impact on an increasingly wayward Russia as EU leaders lined up to criticise the jailing of oil tycoon Mikhail Khodorkovsky on Thursday.

“There’s nothing anyone can say outside of Russia that has any effect on the Russians. They just laugh as we condemn their actions,” Bill Browder, the CEO of US venture capitalist firm Hermitage Capital, whose lawyer, Sergey Magnitsky, died in suspicious circumstances in a Russian prison last year, told this website shortly after the Khodorkovsky sentence.

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